The Government of Alberta has released a 29 (!) year projection on where they expect the provincial population to be in 2046. That could be an interesting time in the history of mankind, as futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts we’ll have singularity (the point at which technology becomes smarter than humans) in 2045.
Notwithstanding the follies of making predictions 3 decades in advance, the government is projecting the we’ll add 2.1 million people over the next 29 years, which will bring the total population to 6.4 million. While it seems staggering, this is based on an average annual growth of 1.4%. Also, Alberta had roughly 2.45 million people 29 years ago (1989), so with population currently around 4.3 million, it represents an average growth of 1.94%. In 1951 there were approximately 950,000 people in Alberta, which is a 2.33% average annual growth rate. So while envisioning 6.4 million people in Alberta might seem far-fetched, it is actually based on a lower growth rate than we’ve seen averaged over the past 66 years.
According to the report, growth is expected to be concentrated in the Edmonton‑Calgary Corridor. By 2046, 4 out of 5 Albertans are projected to be living in Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer (it was 76% in 2017).
So how much does all of this data mean? Well, if all goes according to plan we’ll need considerably more housing and commercial inventory to accommodate the residents and workers. There will be more demand on infrastructure and more services needed. Also, we’ll have a computer smarter than we are (admittedly a low bar to climb over in the first place) writing our blogs. Oh the possibilities of what’s in store!
Government of Alberta
Chad GriffithsPartner, SIOR, CCIM
Chad is a partner with NAI Commercial Real Estate and focuses on the Greater Edmonton area. Chad entered the industry in 2004 and has completed over 400 commercial transactions with clients ranging from small, local companies to large institutional owners. Chad has been a top 15 producer with NAI Canada-wide since 2013.
Ryan BrownPartner, BCom, SIOR
Ryan is a partner with NAI Commercial Real Estate in Edmonton and is currently ranked nationally as one of NAI's top advisors. Having executed in excess of $100 Million worth of sales transactions and over 2 Million square feet of lease transactions, Ryan has developed a firm understanding of asset evaluation and an aptitude for building design, functionality, and long-term practicality.
Darcie is a licensed Commercial Real Estate Agent in the Province of Alberta with a focus on the Edmonton market and its surrounding areas. Darcie accomplishes custom solutions for her clients through her personable nature and results driven attitude. Darcie can help if you are looking to invest in commercial real estate or are looking for representation for a sale or lease transactions.
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